Guides to snow and snow forecasts
Short answers to the questions that come up when you are reading a forecast before a trip.
What are the ECMWF, GFS and ICON weather models, and which is best for snow?Three of the world's main global weather models, run by Europe, the United States and Germany. Each has strengths, none is always right, and comparing them is the most useful thing a snow forecast can do.What is the freezing level, and why does it matter for snow?The freezing level is the height where the air reaches 0 °C. Above it precipitation falls as snow, below it as rain, give or take a few hundred metres, which makes it the single most useful number for judging whether a storm will snow on your resort.How many days ahead is a snow forecast reliable?Snow forecasts are good for about three days, useful for five, and a guide to the pattern beyond that. Amounts are the least reliable part. Here is how to read a 14-day forecast without being misled by it.Why does Japan get so much snow, and what is lake-effect snow?When very cold air crosses relatively warm water it picks up moisture and dumps it as snow on the first land it meets. This is why Hokkaido, the Sea of Japan coast, Buffalo and Syracuse get more snow than places at the same latitude a few hundred kilometres away.Why is it raining in the resort but snowing on the mountain?Air cools by about 6 °C for every 1,000 m of height, so a storm that is a few degrees too warm for snow in the village is often a few degrees too cold for rain at the top lift. The difference is normal, and it is why snowingplaces forecasts both.What will the 2026/27 ski season be like? A very strong El Niño is comingNOAA says there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño through the 2026/27 northern winter, and a 75% chance of the strongest on record. Here is what that has meant for snow in past El Niño winters, region by region, and how much to trust it.How much is 10 cm of snow, and what does it do for skiing?Ten centimetres of fresh snow is about four inches, enough to refresh the pistes and soften the off-piste, but not a powder day. Here is what the numbers in a snow forecast mean on the ground.How do snowingplaces forecasts work?The models, the thresholds behind Likely and Possible, and what the ten-year snow record can and cannot say.